South central kansas | otis34 - 2/15/2025 13:34
Seems to me there is a lot a risk in the wheat market with the potential loss of government programs. If CRP payments are cancelled, that is 26 million acres with 50-70% of those in the wheat belt. Loss of crop insurance subsidy would lead to less corn and soybeans in fringe areas.
So what is the market talk opinion? Are you hedging 25, 26 wheat?
Personally I'm not that worried about CRP acres coming out and going into wheat. In the long term I more worried about the Russia Ukraine war ending and both them ramping up production, but that would be for marketing year '25-'26, at best if the war ended in the next several months, if the war drags on then it could be even longer. If we transition to El Nino later this year into next we could see increase in yield that would depend on how acres were planted. Since 2005, there has been a negative correlation between wheat price and the ONI index.
I am beginning to look at the July '26 KC wheat, but I want to give it a more time to see how the wheat is faring into spring .
Edited by zenfarm 2/15/2025 17:37
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Wheat - who isn’t hedging?
